We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
York Boys
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish4 of 11 (115 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)2–6
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.39%
To States est.96%96% before the conference meets
Projected points115
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:25
Pack: 1st to 5th runner54 s
Scoring five's projected places13 · 17 · 23 · 30 · 32
6th runner behind the 5th24 s
Against the teams around them
Greely (projected 5)+4 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Poland201 pts
Their points vs the last team in-86
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
York runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #13 overall | 17:53 | 90%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #17 overall | 18:16 | 78%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #23 overall | 18:29 | 67%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #30 overall | 18:41 | 55%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #32 overall | 18:47 | 48%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #41 overall | 19:11 | 26%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #44 overall | 19:22 | 18%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.