We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
York Girls
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish6 of 11 (149 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)5–7
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.72%60% before the conference meets
Projected points149
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)22:59
Pack: 1st to 5th runner207 s
Scoring five's projected places14 · 22 · 30 · 50 · 51
6th runner behind the 5th5 s
Against the teams around them
Greely (projected 7)+10 s per runner
Their points vs the last team in+0
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
York runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #14 overall | 21:07 | 96%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #22 overall | 22:00 | 78%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #30 overall | 22:46 | 46%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #50 overall | 24:26 | 3%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #51 overall | 24:35 | 8%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #52 overall | 24:40 | 1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #57 overall | 25:01 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.