We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Cape Elizabeth Boys
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish3 of 11 (106 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)2–5
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.42%
To States est.97%97% before the conference meets
Projected points106
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:19
Pack: 1st to 5th runner98 s
Scoring five's projected places6 · 18 · 22 · 26 · 34
6th runner behind the 5th29 s
Against the teams around them
York (projected 4)+6 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Poland201 pts
Their points vs the last team in-95
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Cape Elizabeth runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #6 overall | 17:16 | 99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #18 overall | 18:17 | 76%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #22 overall | 18:28 | 68%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #26 overall | 18:38 | 58%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #34 overall | 18:54 | 42%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #45 overall | 19:23 | 18%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #56 overall | 19:58 | 4%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.