We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Cape Elizabeth Girls
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish3 of 11 (66 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–3
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.26%
Top 3 est.98%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points66
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)21:14
Pack: 1st to 5th runner90 s
Scoring five's projected places8 · 11 · 12 · 18 · 23
6th runner behind the 5th4 s
Against the teams around them
Lincoln Academy (projected 4)+44 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: York149 pts
Their points vs the last team in-83
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Cape Elizabeth runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #8 overall | 20:40 | 99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #11 overall | 20:54 | 98%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #12 overall | 20:56 | 98%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #18 overall | 21:31 | 90%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #23 overall | 22:10 | 70%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #25 overall | 22:14 | 69%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #26 overall | 22:17 | 66%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.