We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Morse Boys
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish11 of 11 (275 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)9–11
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points275
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)20:07
Pack: 1st to 5th runner94 s
Scoring five's projected places40 · 49 · 60 · 63 · 66
6th runner behind the 5th10 s
Against the teams around them
Lincoln Academy (projected 10)-39 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Poland201 pts
Their points vs the last team in+74
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Morse runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #40 overall | 19:09 | 27%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #49 overall | 19:42 | 9%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #60 overall | 20:27 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #63 overall | 20:31 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #66 overall | 20:44 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #69 overall | 20:53 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #77 overall | 22:15 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.