We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Freeport Boys
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish2 of 11 (72 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)2–4
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.6%
Top 3 est.84%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points72
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)17:49
Pack: 1st to 5th runner107 s
Scoring five's projected places5 · 8 · 10 · 11 · 38
6th runner behind the 5th47 s
Against the teams around them
Cape Elizabeth (projected 3)+29 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Poland201 pts
Their points vs the last team in-129
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Freeport runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #5 overall | 17:16 | 99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #8 overall | 17:26 | 98%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #10 overall | 17:39 | 95%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #11 overall | 17:41 | 94%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #38 overall | 19:03 | 35%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #52 overall | 19:50 | 6%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #55 overall | 19:54 | 5%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.