We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Class B North Boys

17 schools, 122 runners entered. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win, finish top 3 and reach the state meet, and every runner.

Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →

Sat Oct 24Troy Howard Middle School, BelfastHow we got the numbers

Teams (5+ runners)14

To the state meettop 7 teams + top 30 runners

Runners entered122

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 20

Entry lists as ofThu Oct 22, 2:28 PM

Course-37 s vs median

Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Troy Howard (Belfast) rated -37 s vs a median Maine course. Weather: not stored in the freeze. Start times weren't posted, so every race used Saturday's 10 AM–1 PM forecast for its site.

Caribou lead the projection clearly (est. 83% to win). Why Caribou: their scoring five average 54 s per runner faster than Presque Isle's. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 177 s (Presque Isle: 103 s).

Closest projected battle: Cony vs Mt. Desert Island, 4 points apart (185 to 189).

On the state-meet line (top 7 go): Gardiner est. 75%; Cony est. 62%; Mt. Desert Island est. 53%; Medomak Valley est. 43%; Waterville est. 43%; Nokomis est. 28%.

Projected individual winner: Caribou · runner 1, est. 71% to win; 30 runners have a better than even chance of the top 30.

Since the conference meets (results from Oct 15 on): Nokomis to States est. 15% -> est. 28%; Waterville to States est. 52% -> est. 43%; Caribou to win est. 88% -> est. 83%.

Team projection · free7 of 14 go to States

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	To States est.	Pts	Scoring five	Pack
1	CaribouPVC · finish 1–2	83%	>99%	>99%	58	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 177 s
2	Presque IslePVC · finish 2–4	9%	88%	>99%	92	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 103 s
3	John BapstPVC · finish 2–4	8%	87%	>99%	106	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 86 s
4	Erskine AcademyKVAC · finish 4–8	<1%	10%	84%	163	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 214 s
5	GardinerKVAC · finish 4–9	<1%	5%	75%	171	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 211 s
6	ConyKVAC · finish 4–10	<1%	4%	62%	185	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 145 s
7	Mt. Desert IslandPVC · finish 4–10	<1%	3%	53%	189	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 199 s
↑ State meet line: the top 7 teams
8	Medomak ValleyKVAC · finish 5–10	<1%	1%	43%	196	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 304 s
9	WatervilleKVAC · finish 5–11 · down from est. 52% before conf. meets	<1%	2%	43%	201	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 132 s
10	NokomisKVAC · finish 6–11 · up from est. 15% before conf. meets	<1%	<1%	28%	209	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 292 s
11	HermonPVC · finish 7–12	<1%	<1%	14%	223	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 127 s
12	Foxcroft AcademyPVC · finish 12–13	<1%	<1%	<1%	266	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 906 s
13	OceansideKVAC · finish 11–13	<1%	<1%	<1%	288	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 147 s
14	BelfastKVAC · finish 14	<1%	<1%	<1%	384	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 208 s

Order = projected finish (points). A team lower down can have a better chance at the state line when its likely range is wider. "Pack" = seconds between a team's 1st and 5th runner (smaller = harder to beat on a bad day). Teams follow the entry lists. Tap a school for its team page.

Fewer than five entered, so they run as individuals (no team score): Ellsworth, Lawrence, Old Town.

Every runner · by school and number102 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 30 est.	Win est.
1	Caribou · runner 1	15:41	1–3	>99%	71%
2	Caribou · runner 2	16:53	2–12	>99%	4%
3	Foxcroft Academy · runner 1	16:56	2–13	>99%	6%
4	Medomak Valley · runner 1	16:56	2–13	>99%	5%
5	Caribou · runner 3	16:59	2–13	>99%	3%
6	Presque Isle · runner 1	17:14	3–17	>99%	2%
7	Nokomis · runner 1	17:22	3–19	>99%	2%
8	Foxcroft Academy · runner 2	17:36	4–23	97%	<1%
9	John Bapst · runner 1	17:36	4–22	98%	<1%
10	Erskine Academy · runner 1	17:39	4–23	97%	1%
11	Presque Isle · runner 2	17:53	6–28	94%	<1%
12	Gardiner · runner 1	17:53	6–27	94%	<1%
13	Cony · runner 1	17:59	6–29	93%	<1%
14	John Bapst · runner 2	18:02	7–29	92%	<1%
15	Mt. Desert Island · runner 1	18:04	7–30	91%	<1%
16	Mt. Desert Island · runner 2	18:11	8–32	88%	<1%
17	Erskine Academy · runner 2	18:12	8–32	87%	<1%
18	Gardiner · runner 2	18:18	9–34	83%	<1%
19	Presque Isle · runner 3	18:21	10–35	80%	<1%
20	Erskine Academy · runner 3	18:22	9–35	81%	<1%
21	John Bapst · runner 3	18:27	10–37	78%	<1%
22	Gardiner · runner 3	18:31	11–37	75%	<1%
23	Waterville · runner 1	18:33	11–38	72%	<1%
24	Caribou · runner 4	18:34	12–39	71%	<1%
25	Hermon · runner 1	18:37	12–40	68%	<1%
26	Caribou · runner 5	18:38	13–40	68%	<1%
27	Presque Isle · runner 4	18:48	15–43	58%	<1%
28	Medomak Valley · runner 2	18:49	15–42	60%	<1%
29	Presque Isle · runner 5	18:57	17–45	50%	<1%
30	John Bapst · runner 4	18:58	17–45	51%	<1%
31	Waterville · runner 2	18:59	17–46	49%	<1%
32	John Bapst · runner 5	19:03	18–46	44%	<1%
33	Oceanside · runner 1	19:07	19–48	40%	<1%
34	Nokomis · runner 2	19:09	20–48	41%	<1%
35	John Bapst · runner 6	19:11	20–48	37%	<1%
36	Mt. Desert Island · runner 3	19:16	21–49	33%	<1%
37	Caribou · runner 6	19:23	23–52	26%	<1%
38	Cony · runner 2	19:24	23–52	26%	<1%
39	Caribou · runner 7	19:26	24–52	24%	<1%
40	Cony · runner 3	19:30	25–53	22%	<1%
41	Hermon · runner 2	19:33	26–54	19%	<1%
42	Medomak Valley · runner 3	19:33	26–54	20%	<1%
43	Cony · runner 4	19:37	27–55	17%	<1%
44	Waterville · runner 3	19:42	28–56	14%	<1%
45	Old Town · runner 1individual (no team score)	19:47	29–58	12%	<1%
46	Nokomis · runner 3	19:52	31–59	9%	<1%
47	Waterville · runner 4	19:55	31–59	9%	<1%
48	Ellsworth · runner 1individual (no team score)	20:01	34–61	6%	<1%
49	Nokomis · runner 4	20:02	34–61	6%	<1%
50	Hermon · runner 3	20:06	35–61	4%	<1%
51	Medomak Valley · runner 4	20:10	36–63	4%	<1%
52	Gardiner · runner 4	20:13	36–63	4%	<1%
53	Cony · runner 5	20:24	40–66	2%	<1%
54	John Bapst · runner 7	20:33	43–69	<1%	<1%
55	Hermon · runner 4	20:36	44–69	<1%	<1%
56	Erskine Academy · runner 4	20:37	44–69	<1%	<1%
57	Mt. Desert Island · runner 4	20:38	36–75	5%	<1%
58	Hermon · runner 5	20:44	46–72	<1%	<1%
59	Waterville · runner 5	20:45	46–72	<1%	<1%
60	Ellsworth · runner 2individual (no team score)	20:45	45–72	<1%	<1%
61	Oceanside · runner 2	20:50	47–72	<1%	<1%
62	Oceanside · runner 3	21:04	50–76	<1%	<1%
63	Cony · runner 6	21:05	51–76	<1%	<1%
64	Belfast · runner 1	21:11	52–77	<1%	<1%
65	Erskine Academy · runner 5	21:13	53–77	<1%	<1%
66	Cony · runner 7	21:13	53–78	<1%	<1%
67	Erskine Academy · runner 6	21:20	54–79	<1%	<1%
68	Waterville · runner 6	21:21	55–79	<1%	<1%
69	Erskine Academy · runner 7	21:22	55–79	<1%	<1%
70	Mt. Desert Island · runner 5	21:24	55–80	<1%	<1%
71	Oceanside · runner 4	21:24	56–80	<1%	<1%
72	Gardiner · runner 5	21:25	56–80	<1%	<1%
73	Oceanside · runner 5	21:34	59–82	<1%	<1%
74	Oceanside · runner 6	21:52	63–85	<1%	<1%
75	Mt. Desert Island · runner 6	21:52	63–85	<1%	<1%
76	Lawrence · runner 1individual (no team score)	22:00	64–87	<1%	<1%
77	Medomak Valley · runner 5	22:01	64–87	<1%	<1%
78	Belfast · runner 2	22:03	65–86	<1%	<1%
79	Gardiner · runner 6	22:06	66–87	<1%	<1%
80	Nokomis · runner 5	22:14	68–88	<1%	<1%
81	Belfast · runner 3	22:22	70–89	<1%	<1%
82	Foxcroft Academy · runner 3	22:29	71–90	<1%	<1%
83	Nokomis · runner 6	22:32	72–90	<1%	<1%
84	Ellsworth · runner 3individual (no team score)	22:35	72–90	<1%	<1%
85	Lawrence · runner 2individual (no team score)	22:35	72–90	<1%	<1%
86	Hermon · runner 6	22:38	73–91	<1%	<1%
87	Oceanside · runner 7	22:46	76–91	<1%	<1%
88	Gardiner · runner 7	22:50	75–92	<1%	<1%
89	Ellsworth · runner 4individual (no team score)	22:52	76–92	<1%	<1%
90	Nokomis · runner 7	23:00	78–92	<1%	<1%
91	Belfast · runner 4	23:06	80–93	<1%	<1%
92	Foxcroft Academy · runner 4	23:45	86–95	<1%	<1%
93	Medomak Valley · runner 6	24:07	89–96	<1%	<1%
94	Medomak Valley · runner 7	24:26	91–97	<1%	<1%
95	Belfast · runner 5	24:39	92–97	<1%	<1%
96	Presque Isle · runner 6	24:46	93–97	<1%	<1%
97	Mt. Desert Island · runner 7	24:52	93–97	<1%	<1%
98	Old Town · runner 2Little dataindividual (no team score)	26:35	95–99	<1%	<1%
99	Lawrence · runner 3individual (no team score)	27:55	98–99	<1%	<1%
100	Presque Isle · runner 7	29:42	99–100	<1%	<1%
101	Foxcroft Academy · runner 5	32:02	101–101	<1%	<1%
102	Foxcroft Academy · runner 6Little data	36:28	102–102	<1%	<1%

Show all 102 runners

Chances, not calls: team chances come from 4,000 simulated races. "Finish a–b" is where the team lands in 8 of 10 of them. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data this season) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Entered runners only: each school's 7 best entered runners run; runners on teams with fewer than five run as individuals and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race; see how it did.