We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Erskine Academy Boys
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish4 of 14 (163 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)4–8
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.10%
To States est.84%87% before the conference meets
Projected points163
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:12
Pack: 1st to 5th runner214 s
Scoring five's projected places10 · 17 · 20 · 56 · 65
6th runner behind the 5th7 s
Against the teams around them
Gardiner (projected 5)+3 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Mt. Desert Island189 pts
Their points vs the last team in-26
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Erskine Academy runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #10 overall | 17:39 | 97%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #17 overall | 18:12 | 87%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #20 overall | 18:22 | 81%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #56 overall | 20:37 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #65 overall | 21:13 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #67 overall | 21:20 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #69 overall | 21:22 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.