We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Mt. Desert Island Boys
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish7 of 14 (189 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)4–10
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.3%
To States est.53%53% before the conference meets
Projected points189
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:30
Pack: 1st to 5th runner199 s
Scoring five's projected places15 · 16 · 36 · 57 · 70
6th runner behind the 5th28 s
Against the teams around them
Medomak Valley (projected 8)+0 s per runner
Their points vs the last team in+0
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Mt. Desert Island runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #15 overall | 18:04 | 91%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #16 overall | 18:11 | 88%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #36 overall | 19:16 | 33%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #57 overall | 20:38 | 5%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #70 overall | 21:24 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #75 overall | 21:52 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #97 overall | 24:52 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.