We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Mt. Desert Island Girls
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish2 of 10 (52 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–2
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.46%
Top 3 est.>99%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points52
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)20:24
Pack: 1st to 5th runner152 s
Scoring five's projected places2 · 4 · 13 · 16 · 21
6th runner behind the 5th11 s
Against the teams around them
Caribou (projected 3)+42 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: John Bapst120 pts
Their points vs the last team in-68
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Mt. Desert Island runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #2 overall | 19:08 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #4 overall | 19:25 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #13 overall | 20:35 | 99%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #16 overall | 21:13 | 94%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #21 overall | 21:40 | 85%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #23 overall | 21:51 | 81%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7Little dataDISPLACERprojected #24 overall | 21:58 | 61%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.