We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Class C North Boys

18 schools, 94 runners entered. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win, finish top 3 and reach the state meet, and every runner.

Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →

Sat Oct 24Troy Howard Middle School, BelfastHow we got the numbers

Teams (5+ runners)11

To the state meettop 6 teams + top 30 runners

Runners entered94

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 20

Entry lists as ofThu Oct 22, 2:28 PM

Course-37 s vs median

Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Troy Howard (Belfast) rated -37 s vs a median Maine course. Weather: not stored in the freeze. Start times weren't posted, so every race used Saturday's 10 AM–1 PM forecast for its site.

Houlton/GHCA lead the projection clearly (est. 93% to win). Why Houlton/GHCA: their scoring five average 60 s per runner faster than George Stevens Academy's. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 30 s (George Stevens Academy: 36 s).

Closest projected battle: Sumner vs MCI, 2 points apart (182 to 184).

On the state-meet line (top 6 go): Sumner est. 47%; MCI est. 39%.

Projected individual winner: Orono · runner 1, est. 24% to win; 29 runners have a better than even chance of the top 30.

Since the conference meets (results from Oct 15 on): Calais to States est. 26% -> est. 13%; MCI to States est. 28% -> est. 39%.

Team projection · free6 of 11 go to States

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	To States est.	Pts	Scoring five	Pack
1	Houlton/GHCAPVC · finish 1	93%	>99%	>99%	24	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 30 s
2	George Stevens AcademyPVC · finish 2–3	6%	>99%	>99%	59	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 36 s
3	OronoPVC · finish 2–3	1%	>99%	>99%	66	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 155 s
4	Washington AcademyPVC · finish 4–6	<1%	<1%	98%	138	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 129 s
5	BucksportPVC · finish 4–6	<1%	<1%	>99%	146	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 583 s
6	SumnerPVC · finish 5–8	<1%	<1%	47%	182	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 193 s
↑ State meet line: the top 6 teams
7	MCIKVAC · finish 6–8 · up from est. 28% before conf. meets	<1%	<1%	39%	184	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 151 s
8	CalaisPVC · finish 6–8 · down from est. 26% before conf. meets	<1%	<1%	13%	196	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 118 s
9	MSSMAroostook · finish 8–11	<1%	<1%	3%	251	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 130 s
10	DexterPVC · finish 9–11	<1%	<1%	<1%	262	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 255 s
11	CentralPVC · finish 10–11	<1%	<1%	<1%	278	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 245 s

Order = projected finish (points). A team lower down can have a better chance at the state line when its likely range is wider. "Pack" = seconds between a team's 1st and 5th runner (smaller = harder to beat on a bad day). Teams follow the entry lists. Tap a school for its team page.

Fewer than five entered, so they run as individuals (no team score): Bangor Christian, Fort Kent, Machias, Narraguagus, Schenck/Stearns, Shead, Winslow.

Every runner · by school and number85 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 30 est.	Win est.
1	Orono · runner 1	16:27	1–9	>99%	24%
2	Houlton/GHCA · runner 1	16:32	1–9	>99%	19%
3	Houlton/GHCA · runner 2	16:46	2–11	>99%	9%
4	Houlton/GHCA · runner 3	16:46	1–11	>99%	11%
5	Bucksport · runner 1	16:50	1–12	>99%	10%
6	Bucksport · runner 2	16:51	1–12	>99%	10%
7	Houlton/GHCA · runner 4	16:52	2–12	>99%	7%
8	Houlton/GHCA · runner 5	17:02	2–13	>99%	5%
9	George Stevens Academy · runner 1	17:28	4–16	>99%	2%
10	Orono · runner 2	17:45	6–18	>99%	<1%
11	George Stevens Academy · runner 2	17:45	6–19	>99%	<1%
12	George Stevens Academy · runner 3	17:47	6–19	>99%	<1%
13	George Stevens Academy · runner 4	17:52	6–20	>99%	<1%
14	George Stevens Academy · runner 5	18:03	8–21	>99%	<1%
15	Washington Academy · runner 1	18:16	9–23	99%	<1%
16	Bucksport · runner 3	18:23	10–25	98%	<1%
17	Orono · runner 3	18:25	10–24	98%	<1%
18	Orono · runner 4	18:30	11–25	98%	<1%
19	Houlton/GHCA · runner 6	18:40	12–27	96%	<1%
20	Orono · runner 5	19:02	15–31	89%	<1%
21	George Stevens Academy · runner 6	19:11	13–38	75%	<1%
22	Orono · runner 6	19:12	17–33	84%	<1%
23	MCI · runner 1	19:16	17–33	81%	<1%
24	George Stevens Academy · runner 7	19:17	17–34	79%	<1%
25	Sumner · runner 1	19:20	17–34	78%	<1%
26	Orono · runner 7	19:21	18–35	78%	<1%
27	Washington Academy · runner 2	19:23	18–35	76%	<1%
28	Machias · runner 1individual (no team score)	19:41	20–39	59%	<1%
29	Washington Academy · runner 3	19:50	22–40	52%	<1%
30	MCI · runner 2	19:51	22–40	49%	<1%
31	Calais · runner 1	20:06	24–43	35%	<1%
32	Sumner · runner 2	20:09	25–43	34%	<1%
33	Calais · runner 2	20:09	25–43	33%	<1%
34	Washington Academy · runner 4	20:19	27–45	24%	<1%
35	Dexter · runner 1	20:21	27–45	23%	<1%
36	Washington Academy · runner 5	20:24	28–46	19%	<1%
37	Houlton/GHCA · runner 7	20:28	28–47	18%	<1%
38	Sumner · runner 3	20:39	29–48	13%	<1%
39	Fort Kent · runner 1individual (no team score)	20:39	30–48	12%	<1%
40	Sumner · runner 4	20:48	31–49	8%	<1%
41	MCI · runner 3	20:52	32–50	7%	<1%
42	Central · runner 1	20:52	32–50	7%	<1%
43	Bangor Christian · runner 1individual (no team score)	21:06	34–52	4%	<1%
44	Calais · runner 3	21:10	36–52	2%	<1%
45	Washington Academy · runner 6	21:24	38–54	1%	<1%
46	MSSM · runner 1Little data	21:25	26–63	16%	<1%
47	Calais · runner 4	21:32	40–55	<1%	<1%
48	MSSM · runner 2Little data	21:36	28–64	13%	<1%
49	MCI · runner 4Little data	21:42	29–64	11%	<1%
50	MCI · runner 5	21:47	42–57	<1%	<1%
51	MSSM · runner 3Little data	21:48	30–65	11%	<1%
52	Calais · runner 5	22:04	45–59	<1%	<1%
53	Machias · runner 2individual (no team score)	22:10	46–60	<1%	<1%
54	Central · runner 2	22:20	47–61	<1%	<1%
55	Sumner · runner 5Little data	22:32	38–69	4%	<1%
56	Bucksport · runner 4	22:35	49–63	<1%	<1%
57	Calais · runner 6	22:39	50–63	<1%	<1%
58	Dexter · runner 2	22:46	51–64	<1%	<1%
59	Winslow · runner 1individual (no team score)	22:47	51–64	<1%	<1%
60	Dexter · runner 3	22:52	51–65	<1%	<1%
61	Dexter · runner 4	23:21	55–68	<1%	<1%
62	Winslow · runner 2individual (no team score)	23:25	56–68	<1%	<1%
63	MSSM · runner 4No 2026 race yet	–	38–76	6%	<1%
64	MSSM · runner 5No 2026 race yet	–	38–76	6%	<1%
65	Shead · runner 1No 2026 race yetindividual (no team score)	–	38–76	6%	<1%
66	Washington Academy · runner 7	23:39	58–69	<1%	<1%
67	Sumner · runner 6	23:53	60–71	<1%	<1%
68	Central · runner 3	24:23	63–73	<1%	<1%
69	Central · runner 4	24:31	64–73	<1%	<1%
70	Dexter · runner 5	24:36	64–74	<1%	<1%
71	Machias · runner 3individual (no team score)	24:38	64–74	<1%	<1%
72	Sumner · runner 7Little data	24:46	58–77	<1%	<1%
73	Central · runner 5	24:57	64–76	<1%	<1%
74	Central · runner 6	25:00	67–75	<1%	<1%
75	Schenck/Stearns · runner 1Little dataindividual (no team score)	25:38	64–78	<1%	<1%
76	Shead · runner 2Little dataindividual (no team score)	25:52	65–79	<1%	<1%
77	Bucksport · runner 5	26:33	74–78	<1%	<1%
78	MCI · runner 6	26:53	75–79	<1%	<1%
79	Calais · runner 7	28:09	78–80	<1%	<1%
80	Schenck/Stearns · runner 2individual (no team score)	28:22	77–81	<1%	<1%
81	MSSM · runner 6Little data	30:05	79–85	<1%	<1%
82	Narraguagus · runner 1individual (no team score)	30:09	80–84	<1%	<1%
83	Machias · runner 4individual (no team score)	30:10	81–83	<1%	<1%
84	MCI · runner 7	31:23	83–85	<1%	<1%
85	Winslow · runner 3individual (no team score)	31:32	83–85	<1%	<1%

Show all 85 runners

Chances, not calls: team chances come from 4,000 simulated races. "Finish a–b" is where the team lands in 8 of 10 of them. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data this season) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Entered runners only: each school's 7 best entered runners run; runners on teams with fewer than five run as individuals and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race; see how it did.