We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
MSSM Boys
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. Aroostook. 6 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish9 of 11 (251 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)8–11
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.3%3% before the conference meets
Projected points251
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)22:24
Pack: 1st to 5th runner130 s
Scoring five's projected places46 · 48 · 51 · 63 · 64
6th runner behind the 5th390 s
Against the teams around them
Calais (projected 8)-84 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Sumner182 pts
Their points vs the last team in+69
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
MSSM runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1Little dataSCORERprojected #46 overall | 21:25 | 16%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2Little dataSCORERprojected #48 overall | 21:36 | 13%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3Little dataSCORERprojected #51 overall | 21:48 | 11%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4No 2026 race yetSCORERprojected #63 overall | – | 6%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5No 2026 race yetSCORERprojected #64 overall | – | 6%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6Little dataDISPLACERprojected #81 overall | 30:05 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.