We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Central Boys
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 6 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish11 of 11 (278 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)10–11
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points278
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)23:25
Pack: 1st to 5th runner245 s
Scoring five's projected places42 · 54 · 68 · 69 · 73
6th runner behind the 5th3 s
Against the teams around them
Dexter (projected 10)-37 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Sumner182 pts
Their points vs the last team in+96
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Central runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #42 overall | 20:52 | 7%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #54 overall | 22:20 | <1%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #68 overall | 24:23 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #69 overall | 24:31 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #73 overall | 24:57 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #74 overall | 25:00 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.