We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Washington Academy Boys
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish4 of 11 (138 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)4–6
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.98%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points138
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:38
Pack: 1st to 5th runner129 s
Scoring five's projected places15 · 27 · 29 · 34 · 36
6th runner behind the 5th60 s
Against the teams around them
Bucksport (projected 5)+36 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Sumner182 pts
Their points vs the last team in-44
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Washington Academy runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #15 overall | 18:16 | 99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #27 overall | 19:23 | 76%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #29 overall | 19:50 | 52%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #34 overall | 20:19 | 24%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #36 overall | 20:24 | 19%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #45 overall | 21:24 | 1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #66 overall | 23:39 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.