We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Gardiner Boys
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish5 of 14 (171 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)4–9
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.5%
To States est.75%77% before the conference meets
Projected points171
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:16
Pack: 1st to 5th runner211 s
Scoring five's projected places12 · 18 · 22 · 52 · 72
6th runner behind the 5th42 s
Against the teams around them
Cony (projected 6)+7 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Mt. Desert Island189 pts
Their points vs the last team in-18
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Gardiner runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #12 overall | 17:53 | 94%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #18 overall | 18:18 | 83%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #22 overall | 18:31 | 75%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #52 overall | 20:13 | 4%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #72 overall | 21:25 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #79 overall | 22:06 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #88 overall | 22:50 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.