We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Fryeburg Academy Boys
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish11 of 17 (338 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)9–15
State meet linetop 9 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.19%16% before the conference meets
Projected points338
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:38
Pack: 1st to 5th runner145 s
Scoring five's projected places29 · 62 · 74 · 90 · 91
6th runner behind the 5th3 s
Against the teams around them
Kennebunk (projected 10)-7 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Massabesic309 pts
Their points vs the last team in+29
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Fryeburg Academy runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #29 overall | 18:07 | 47%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #62 overall | 19:18 | 4%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #74 overall | 19:51 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #90 overall | 20:20 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #91 overall | 20:32 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #94 overall | 20:36 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #98 overall | 20:56 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.