We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Fryeburg Academy Girls
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish7 of 16 (198 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)6–10
State meet linetop 8 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.64%59% before the conference meets
Projected points198
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)22:36
Pack: 1st to 5th runner230 s
Scoring five's projected places9 · 32 · 39 · 48 · 74
6th runner behind the 5th162 s
Against the teams around them
Deering (projected 8)+9 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Deering215 pts
Their points vs the last team in-17
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Fryeburg Academy runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #9 overall | 20:41 | 92%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #32 overall | 22:21 | 37%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #39 overall | 22:35 | 24%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #48 overall | 22:51 | 18%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #74 overall | 24:31 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #104 overall | 27:13 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #105 overall | 27:18 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.