We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Massabesic Boys
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish9 of 17 (309 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)8–14
State meet linetop 9 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.32%34% before the conference meets
Projected points309
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:25
Pack: 1st to 5th runner174 s
Scoring five's projected places28 · 33 · 73 · 82 · 99
6th runner behind the 5th77 s
Against the teams around them
Kennebunk (projected 10)+5 s per runner
Their points vs the last team in+0
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Massabesic runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #28 overall | 18:06 | 49%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #33 overall | 18:15 | 40%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #73 overall | 19:45 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #82 overall | 19:59 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #99 overall | 21:01 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #110 overall | 22:18 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #122 overall | 24:14 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.