We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Massabesic Girls
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish4 of 16 (112 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)3–5
State meet linetop 8 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.1%
Top 3 est.30%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points112
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)21:34
Pack: 1st to 5th runner140 s
Scoring five's projected places7 · 14 · 20 · 21 · 51
6th runner behind the 5th20 s
Against the teams around them
Cheverus (projected 5)+12 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Deering215 pts
Their points vs the last team in-103
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Massabesic runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #7 overall | 20:36 | 94%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #14 overall | 20:57 | 89%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #20 overall | 21:41 | 65%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #21 overall | 21:42 | 64%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #51 overall | 22:56 | 15%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #57 overall | 23:16 | 8%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #76 overall | 24:36 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.