We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Skowhegan Boys
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish12 of 12 (307 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)11–12
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points307
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)20:37
Pack: 1st to 5th runner300 s
Scoring five's projected places28 · 65 · 66 · 69 · 79
6th runner behind the 5th7 s
Against the teams around them
Lewiston (projected 11)-33 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Brewer171 pts
Their points vs the last team in+136
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Skowhegan runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #28 overall | 17:56 | 61%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #65 overall | 20:31 | <1%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #66 overall | 20:47 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #69 overall | 20:54 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #79 overall | 22:56 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #80 overall | 23:04 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #83 overall | 25:46 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.