We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Bangor Boys
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish9 of 12 (204 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)6–9
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.12%10% before the conference meets
Projected points204
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:39
Pack: 1st to 5th runner302 s
Scoring five's projected places1 · 30 · 44 · 59 · 70
6th runner behind the 5th83 s
Against the teams around them
Brunswick (projected 8)-7 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Brewer171 pts
Their points vs the last team in+33
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Bangor runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #1 overall | 15:57 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #30 overall | 18:06 | 52%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #44 overall | 18:47 | 16%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #59 overall | 19:28 | 3%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #70 overall | 20:58 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #78 overall | 22:21 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #81 overall | 23:07 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.