We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Bangor Girls
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish5 of 10 (140 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)5–6
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.80%78% before the conference meets
Projected points140
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)22:50
Pack: 1st to 5th runner186 s
Scoring five's projected places12 · 24 · 35 · 36 · 39
6th runner behind the 5th220 s
Against the teams around them
Mt. Blue (projected 6)+41 s per runner
Their points vs the last team in+0
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Bangor runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #12 overall | 20:45 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #24 overall | 22:24 | 79%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #35 overall | 23:34 | 31%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #36 overall | 23:34 | 31%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #39 overall | 23:51 | 21%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #61 overall | 27:31 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #63 overall | 27:46 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.