We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Brunswick Boys
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish8 of 12 (195 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)5–9
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.3%
To States est.38%36% before the conference meets
Projected points195
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:32
Pack: 1st to 5th runner78 s
Scoring five's projected places26 · 29 · 41 · 47 · 52
6th runner behind the 5th0 s
Against the teams around them
Mt. Ararat (projected 7)-8 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Brewer171 pts
Their points vs the last team in+24
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Brunswick runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #26 overall | 17:54 | 64%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #29 overall | 17:57 | 61%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #41 overall | 18:34 | 32%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #47 overall | 19:02 | 10%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #52 overall | 19:12 | 5%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #53 overall | 19:12 | 6%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #57 overall | 19:26 | 3%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.