We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Messalonskee Boys
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish3 of 12 (81 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–5
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.15%
Top 3 est.58%
To States est.97%98% before the conference meets
Projected points81
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)17:30
Pack: 1st to 5th runner87 s
Scoring five's projected places5 · 7 · 12 · 21 · 36
6th runner behind the 5th42 s
Against the teams around them
Mt. Blue (projected 4)-8 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Brewer171 pts
Their points vs the last team in-90
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Messalonskee runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #5 overall | 16:55 | 97%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #7 overall | 17:02 | 95%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #12 overall | 17:22 | 88%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #21 overall | 17:49 | 68%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #36 overall | 18:22 | 37%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #49 overall | 19:03 | 10%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #54 overall | 19:20 | 4%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.