We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Mt. Ararat Boys
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish7 of 12 (175 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)5–9
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.3%
To States est.44%45% before the conference meets
Projected points175
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:23
Pack: 1st to 5th runner136 s
Scoring five's projected places14 · 22 · 34 · 43 · 62
6th runner behind the 5th2 s
Against the teams around them
Brewer (projected 6)-1 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Brewer171 pts
Their points vs the last team in+4
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Mt. Ararat runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #14 overall | 17:26 | 85%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #22 overall | 17:49 | 69%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #34 overall | 18:14 | 46%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #43 overall | 18:46 | 18%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #62 overall | 19:42 | 1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #63 overall | 19:44 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #68 overall | 20:53 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.