We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Mt. Ararat Girls
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish4 of 10 (110 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)4
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.6%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points110
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)22:10
Pack: 1st to 5th runner254 s
Scoring five's projected places5 · 11 · 28 · 30 · 40
6th runner behind the 5th3 s
Against the teams around them
Bangor (projected 5)+40 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Bangor140 pts
Their points vs the last team in-30
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Mt. Ararat runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #5 overall | 19:56 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #11 overall | 20:25 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #28 overall | 23:09 | 50%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #30 overall | 23:10 | 49%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #40 overall | 24:10 | 23%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #41 overall | 24:13 | 10%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #43 overall | 24:23 | 8%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.