We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Mt. Blue Boys
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish4 of 12 (87 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–5
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.20%
Top 3 est.68%
To States est.99%99% before the conference meets
Projected points87
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)17:22
Pack: 1st to 5th runner122 s
Scoring five's projected places2 · 3 · 20 · 25 · 37
6th runner behind the 5th8 s
Against the teams around them
Oxford Hills (projected 5)+41 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Brewer171 pts
Their points vs the last team in-84
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Mt. Blue runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #2 overall | 16:22 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #3 overall | 16:24 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #20 overall | 17:45 | 71%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #25 overall | 17:54 | 65%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #37 overall | 18:24 | 35%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #40 overall | 18:32 | 28%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #55 overall | 19:24 | 3%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.