We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Mt. Blue Girls
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish6 of 10 (166 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)5–7
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.17%18% before the conference meets
Projected points166
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)23:31
Pack: 1st to 5th runner164 s
Scoring five's projected places23 · 31 · 33 · 38 · 48
6th runner behind the 5th21 s
Against the teams around them
Bangor (projected 5)-41 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Bangor140 pts
Their points vs the last team in+26
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Mt. Blue runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #23 overall | 22:14 | 84%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #31 overall | 23:14 | 44%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #33 overall | 23:25 | 38%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #38 overall | 23:43 | 25%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #48 overall | 24:58 | 2%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #51 overall | 25:18 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #58 overall | 26:38 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.