We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Oxford Hills Boys
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish5 of 12 (139 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)3–8
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.1%
Top 3 est.12%
To States est.77%76% before the conference meets
Projected points139
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:03
Pack: 1st to 5th runner122 s
Scoring five's projected places13 · 16 · 19 · 33 · 58
6th runner behind the 5th16 s
Against the teams around them
Brewer (projected 6)+19 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Brewer171 pts
Their points vs the last team in-32
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Oxford Hills runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #13 overall | 17:23 | 86%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #16 overall | 17:29 | 84%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #19 overall | 17:44 | 73%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #33 overall | 18:13 | 46%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #58 overall | 19:26 | 3%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #61 overall | 19:42 | 1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #71 overall | 21:00 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.