We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Oxford Hills Girls
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish7 of 10 (180 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)6–7
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.3%4% before the conference meets
Projected points180
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)23:55
Pack: 1st to 5th runner253 s
Scoring five's projected places18 · 25 · 46 · 47 · 54
6th runner behind the 5th18 s
Against the teams around them
Mt. Blue (projected 6)-25 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Bangor140 pts
Their points vs the last team in+40
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Oxford Hills runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #18 overall | 21:40 | 95%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #25 overall | 22:42 | 67%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #46 overall | 24:36 | 4%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #47 overall | 24:46 | 3%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #54 overall | 25:53 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #56 overall | 26:12 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #57 overall | 26:28 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.