We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Hampden Academy Girls
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish1 of 10 (32 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.93%
Top 3 est.>99%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points32
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:48
Pack: 1st to 5th runner132 s
Scoring five's projected places1 · 6 · 7 · 8 · 10
6th runner behind the 5th23 s
Against the teams around them
Camden Hills (projected 2)+59 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Bangor140 pts
Their points vs the last team in-108
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Hampden Academy runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #1 overall | 18:10 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #6 overall | 19:59 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #7 overall | 20:13 | >99%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #8 overall | 20:15 | >99%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #10 overall | 20:22 | >99%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #13 overall | 20:46 | >99%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #16 overall | 21:28 | 97%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.