We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Ellsworth Girls
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 5 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish6 of 10 (146 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)5–7
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.11%9% before the conference meets
Projected points146
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)22:54
Pack: 1st to 5th runner412 s
Scoring five's projected places6 · 30 · 31 · 33 · 65
6th runner behind the 5thno 6th runner
Against the teams around them
John Bapst (projected 5)-54 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: John Bapst120 pts
Their points vs the last team in+26
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Ellsworth runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #6 overall | 19:35 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #30 overall | 22:41 | 46%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #31 overall | 22:49 | 41%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #33 overall | 23:00 | 33%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #65 overall | 26:26 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.