We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Lawrence Girls
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish9 of 10 (218 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)8–10
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points218
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)24:27
Pack: 1st to 5th runner230 s
Scoring five's projected places32 · 44 · 45 · 57 · 67
6th runner behind the 5th52 s
Against the teams around them
Cony (projected 8)+117 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: John Bapst120 pts
Their points vs the last team in+98
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Lawrence runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #32 overall | 22:58 | 35%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #44 overall | 23:36 | 14%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #45 overall | 23:42 | 11%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #57 overall | 25:14 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #67 overall | 26:48 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #69 overall | 27:40 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #73 overall | 29:17 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.