We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Waterville Girls
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish4 of 10 (109 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)3–5
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.18%
To States est.96%97% before the conference meets
Projected points109
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)21:58
Pack: 1st to 5th runner140 s
Scoring five's projected places12 · 25 · 26 · 27 · 29
6th runner behind the 5th62 s
Against the teams around them
John Bapst (projected 5)+3 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: John Bapst120 pts
Their points vs the last team in-11
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Waterville runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #12 overall | 20:20 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #25 overall | 22:03 | 73%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #26 overall | 22:17 | 66%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #27 overall | 22:27 | 57%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #29 overall | 22:40 | 48%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #46 overall | 23:43 | 10%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #47 overall | 23:44 | 10%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.