We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Caribou Girls
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish3 of 10 (91 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)3–4
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.74%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points91
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)21:06
Pack: 1st to 5th runner318 s
Scoring five's projected places1 · 7 · 15 · 34 · 42
6th runner behind the 5th42 s
Against the teams around them
Waterville (projected 4)+51 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: John Bapst120 pts
Their points vs the last team in-29
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Caribou runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #1 overall | 18:10 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #7 overall | 19:52 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #15 overall | 20:54 | 98%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #34 overall | 23:08 | 28%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #42 overall | 23:28 | 16%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #50 overall | 24:11 | 4%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #58 overall | 25:22 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.