We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Old Town Girls
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 5 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish7 of 10 (192 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)6–8
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points192
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)23:34
Pack: 1st to 5th runner220 s
Scoring five's projected places20 · 38 · 48 · 49 · 56
6th runner behind the 5thno 6th runner
Against the teams around them
Ellsworth (projected 6)-40 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: John Bapst120 pts
Their points vs the last team in+72
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Old Town runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #20 overall | 21:33 | 87%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #38 overall | 23:13 | 23%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #48 overall | 23:49 | 8%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #49 overall | 24:01 | 6%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #56 overall | 25:13 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.