We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Presque Isle Girls
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish1 of 10 (44 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–2
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.54%
Top 3 est.>99%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points44
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)20:05
Pack: 1st to 5th runner135 s
Scoring five's projected places3 · 5 · 10 · 11 · 18
6th runner behind the 5th110 s
Against the teams around them
Mt. Desert Island (projected 2)+19 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: John Bapst120 pts
Their points vs the last team in-76
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Presque Isle runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #3 overall | 19:10 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #5 overall | 19:32 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #10 overall | 20:08 | >99%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #11 overall | 20:13 | >99%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #18 overall | 21:25 | 91%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #39 overall | 23:15 | 22%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #40 overall | 23:15 | 23%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.