We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
John Bapst Girls
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 6 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish5 of 10 (120 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)4–5
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.7%
To States est.93%94% before the conference meets
Projected points120
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)22:01
Pack: 1st to 5th runner252 s
Scoring five's projected places9 · 14 · 22 · 35 · 51
6th runner behind the 5th68 s
Against the teams around them
Ellsworth (projected 6)+54 s per runner
Their points vs the last team in+0
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
John Bapst runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #9 overall | 20:03 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #14 overall | 20:48 | 98%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #22 overall | 21:48 | 82%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #35 overall | 23:11 | 27%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #51 overall | 24:14 | 3%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #59 overall | 25:22 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.