We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Lincoln Academy Girls
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish4 of 11 (115 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)4–5
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.4%
To States est.98%97% before the conference meets
Projected points115
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)21:58
Pack: 1st to 5th runner342 s
Scoring five's projected places1 · 10 · 28 · 39 · 49
6th runner behind the 5th24 s
Against the teams around them
Morse (projected 5)+32 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: York149 pts
Their points vs the last team in-34
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Lincoln Academy runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #1 overall | 18:41 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #10 overall | 20:43 | 99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #28 overall | 22:31 | 58%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #39 overall | 23:29 | 28%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #49 overall | 24:24 | 3%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #54 overall | 24:48 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #58 overall | 25:29 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.