We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Yarmouth Girls
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish2 of 11 (54 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–3
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.38%
Top 3 est.99%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points54
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)21:00
Pack: 1st to 5th runner100 s
Scoring five's projected places3 · 4 · 13 · 19 · 21
6th runner behind the 5th21 s
Against the teams around them
Cape Elizabeth (projected 3)+14 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: York149 pts
Their points vs the last team in-95
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Yarmouth runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #3 overall | 20:10 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #4 overall | 20:20 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #13 overall | 21:02 | 97%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #19 overall | 21:40 | 87%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #21 overall | 21:50 | 83%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #24 overall | 22:11 | 70%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #35 overall | 23:00 | 34%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.