We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Lake Region Girls
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 6 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish11 of 11 (298 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)10–11
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points298
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)27:12
Pack: 1st to 5th runner183 s
Scoring five's projected places60 · 62 · 68 · 70 · 71
6th runner behind the 5th82 s
Against the teams around them
Leavitt (projected 10)-28 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: York149 pts
Their points vs the last team in+149
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Lake Region runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #60 overall | 25:35 | <1%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #62 overall | 25:52 | <1%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #68 overall | 27:35 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #70 overall | 28:19 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #71 overall | 28:38 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #75 overall | 30:00 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.