We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Poland Girls
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish8 of 11 (267 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)8–10
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points267
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)27:00
Pack: 1st to 5th runner599 s
Scoring five's projected places20 · 59 · 67 · 73 · 78
6th runner behind the 5th74 s
Against the teams around them
Greely (projected 7)-230 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: York149 pts
Their points vs the last team in+118
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Poland runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #20 overall | 21:50 | 82%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #59 overall | 25:29 | <1%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #67 overall | 26:06 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #73 overall | 29:44 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5Little dataSCORERprojected #78 overall | 31:49 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #81 overall | 33:03 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #82 overall | 37:19 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.