We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Winthrop Girls
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish6 of 11 (141 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)5–6
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.98%97% before the conference meets
Projected points141
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)25:00
Pack: 1st to 5th runner422 s
Scoring five's projected places3 · 18 · 42 · 51 · 59
6th runner behind the 5th19 s
Against the teams around them
Dirigo (projected 7)+73 s per runner
Their points vs the last team in+0
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Winthrop runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #3 overall | 21:05 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #18 overall | 23:12 | 93%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #42 overall | 25:40 | 10%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #51 overall | 26:53 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #59 overall | 28:08 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #61 overall | 28:26 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #70 overall | 29:25 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.