We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Carrabec Girls
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 5 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish8 of 11 (212 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)8–10
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points212
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)27:24
Pack: 1st to 5th runner424 s
Scoring five's projected places27 · 41 · 53 · 65 · 76
6th runner behind the 5thno 6th runner
Against the teams around them
Dirigo (projected 7)-71 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Winthrop141 pts
Their points vs the last team in+71
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Carrabec runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #27 overall | 24:13 | 64%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #41 overall | 25:34 | 12%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #53 overall | 27:14 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #65 overall | 28:44 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #76 overall | 31:17 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.