We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Carrabec Boys
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish3 of 14 (118 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)2–6
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.54%
To States est.98%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points118
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:55
Pack: 1st to 5th runner60 s
Scoring five's projected places16 · 18 · 27 · 28 · 32
6th runner behind the 5th98 s
Against the teams around them
NYA (projected 4)+13 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Waynflete158 pts
Their points vs the last team in-40
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Carrabec runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #16 overall | 18:29 | 89%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #18 overall | 18:35 | 86%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #27 overall | 18:57 | 69%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #28 overall | 19:05 | 64%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #32 overall | 19:29 | 40%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #60 overall | 21:07 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #71 overall | 21:51 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.