We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Forest Hills Girls
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 6 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish10 of 11 (227 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)9–10
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points227
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)29:12
Pack: 1st to 5th runner757 s
Scoring five's projected places13 · 45 · 66 · 80 · 83
6th runner behind the 5th179 s
Against the teams around them
Monmouth Academy (projected 9)-81 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Winthrop141 pts
Their points vs the last team in+86
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Forest Hills runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #13 overall | 22:39 | 99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #45 overall | 25:58 | 5%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #66 overall | 28:49 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4Little dataSCORERprojected #80 overall | 33:17 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #83 overall | 35:16 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #86 overall | 38:15 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.