We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Monmouth Academy Girls
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 6 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish9 of 11 (216 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)8–10
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points216
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)27:50
Pack: 1st to 5th runner544 s
Scoring five's projected places10 · 48 · 63 · 72 · 77
6th runner behind the 5th259 s
Against the teams around them
Carrabec (projected 8)-26 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Winthrop141 pts
Their points vs the last team in+75
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Monmouth Academy runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #10 overall | 22:23 | 99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2Little dataSCORERprojected #48 overall | 26:33 | 19%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #63 overall | 28:29 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #72 overall | 30:20 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5Little dataSCORERprojected #77 overall | 31:27 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #84 overall | 35:46 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.