We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Waynflete Girls
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish4 of 11 (110 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)3–5
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.30%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points110
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)24:03
Pack: 1st to 5th runner306 s
Scoring five's projected places6 · 14 · 26 · 38 · 49
6th runner behind the 5th50 s
Against the teams around them
Boothbay/Wiscasset (projected 5)+17 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Winthrop141 pts
Their points vs the last team in-31
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Waynflete runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #6 overall | 21:30 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #14 overall | 22:44 | 98%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #26 overall | 24:10 | 65%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #38 overall | 25:15 | 21%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #49 overall | 26:36 | 1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #54 overall | 27:27 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #58 overall | 28:02 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.