We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Boothbay/Wiscasset Girls
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 6 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish5 of 11 (118 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)3–6
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.12%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points118
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)24:20
Pack: 1st to 5th runner222 s
Scoring five's projected places11 · 19 · 22 · 43 · 47
6th runner behind the 5th131 s
Against the teams around them
Winthrop (projected 6)+39 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Winthrop141 pts
Their points vs the last team in-23
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Boothbay/Wiscasset runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #11 overall | 22:27 | 94%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #19 overall | 23:27 | 88%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #22 overall | 23:47 | 80%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #43 overall | 25:52 | 6%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #47 overall | 26:09 | 4%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #60 overall | 28:20 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.