We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Maine Coast Waldorf Girls
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish1 of 11 (65 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–2
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.74%
Top 3 est.>99%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points65
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)22:52
Pack: 1st to 5th runner127 s
Scoring five's projected places7 · 8 · 16 · 23 · 25
6th runner behind the 5th42 s
Against the teams around them
NYA (projected 2)+20 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Winthrop141 pts
Their points vs the last team in-76
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Maine Coast Waldorf runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #7 overall | 21:49 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #8 overall | 21:53 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #16 overall | 22:56 | 96%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #23 overall | 23:49 | 79%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #25 overall | 23:55 | 77%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #32 overall | 24:37 | 46%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #36 overall | 25:06 | 27%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.